609
ACUS11 KWNS 191402
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191401
NEZ000-191600-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2038
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0901 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 191401Z - 191600Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE, PERHAPS WITH SOME UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO A SMALL ORGANIZING CLUSTER, MAY BE MAINTAINED AT LEAST
INTO THE 11 AM-1 PM CDT TIME FRAME, POSING A CONTINUING RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS WHILE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. IT IS NOT YET CERTAIN THAT THIS WILL REQUIRE A
SEVERE WEATHER WATCH, BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.
DISCUSSION...DOWNSTREAM OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH,
DIGGING WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW, AT
LEAST A LOCALIZED AREA OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT (LARGELY
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION CENTERED NEAR/BELOW THE 700 MB LEVEL)
IS MAINTAINING ISOLATED VIGOROUS CONVECTION NOW PROPAGATING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF O'NEILL. STRONG SHEAR
WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER IS CONTRIBUTING TO A SUSTAINED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE, WHICH STILL APPEARS ROOTED ABOVE A RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE
NEAR SURFACE LAYER.
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, CONVECTION APPEARS BASED AROUND 850 MB,
WHERE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT MAY BE SUPPORTING
UPDRAFT INFLOW OF AIR CHARACTERIZED BY MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG. IT APPEARS THAT THIS COULD BE MAINTAINED
AT LEAST INTO THE 17-18Z TIME FRAME, AS THE STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT DEVELOPS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COLUMBUS AND GRAND
ISLAND VICINITIES.
..KERR/SMITH.. 08/19/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 42249883 42399849 41939743 41489698 40939724 41179803
41779905 42059923 42249883
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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