131
ACUS11 KWNS 191726
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191726
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-191930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2039
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 599...
VALID 191726Z - 191930Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 599
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED AND WEAKEN, BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSING A
RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND MAY CONTINUE INTO THE 2-4 PM CDT TIME
FRAME.
DISCUSSION...A BROADER CYCLONIC VORTEX HAS EVOLVED FROM AN INITIAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH STRONGER
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINTAINING A MODEST
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION. SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF THIS
CLUSTER REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AS LATEST RAPID REFRESH CONTINUES TO
INDICATE WEAKENING OF INITIAL LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION
SUPPORTING FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS
THIS OCCURS, INCREASING MID-LEVEL INHIBITION AND LESS UNSTABLE
INFLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DIMINISHING CONVECTION ON THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE CLUSTER.
A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION (INCLUDING CAPE ON THE ORDER
OF 1500-2000 J/KG) HAS EVOLVED DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING CLUSTER,
NEAR/SOUTHWEST OF OMAHA AND SOUTH OF I-80 INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.
THIS APPEARS FOCUSED NEAR THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ELEVATED
MIXED-LAYER, AS ROUGHLY DEPICTED BY THE THERMAL GRADIENT AROUND 700
MB. THIS MAY SHIFT SOUTHWARD A BIT WITH CONTINUING PROGRESSION OF
THE MCV WITHIN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW, WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MCV AND/OR, PERHAPS, THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD POOL
SUPPORTING RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 19-21Z.
..KERR.. 08/19/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID...
LAT...LON 41289685 41239601 41189518 40689480 40109513 40089624
40109685 40339771 40459825 40729884 41169887 41039817
41289685
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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