372
ACUS11 KWNS 191929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191929
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-192200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2040
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191929Z - 192200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THROUGH 5-7
PM CDT, ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALIZED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND AT LEAST A
BIT MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG, BUT GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE, WIND GUSTS.
DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED AND GENERALLY LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE MORE
INTENSE GUSTS, A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED,
BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCLEAR,
BUT PERHAPS AIDED BY WEAK NEAR-SURFACE WARM ADVECTION, INITIATION OF
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS UNDERWAY WITHIN A BROADLY
CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL REGIME ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN
ALABAMA. THIS IS OCCURRING IN THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT (10 KT OR LESS)
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW, BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONGLY HEATED, SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH STEEP LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES OF
POTENTIAL WET-BULB TEMPERATURE.
HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING, COUPLED WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING, MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS IN THE INITIALLY MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONGEST STORMS. GRADUALLY,
COLLIDING/INTERSECTING OUTFLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
SURFACE GUSTS INTO EARLY EVENING.
..KERR/SMITH.. 08/19/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 33788926 33668742 31508581 30828680 31098831 32058932
33008981 33788926
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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