450
ACUS11 KWNS 191931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191930
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-192100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2041
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI INTO FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 191930Z - 192100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESS OF AN ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENT
AND POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINEAR CONVECTION WILL POSE A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS, ISOLATED LARGE HAIL, AND POSSIBLY A
BRIEF TORNADO. A WATCH IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...AMPLE SURFACE HEATING HAS OCCURRED IN BETWEEN AREAS OF
CLOUD COVER IN NORTHERN MISSOURI AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
FAR SOUTHERN IOWA. IN SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA A SMALL BOWING SEGMENT
WITH A HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE AND MEASURED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
GENERALLY MOVE INTO THIS RELATIVELY MORE FAVORABLE ZONE. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 45-50 KT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION. AS
THE BOWING SEGMENT TAKES A MORE EASTERLY TRACK INTO MORE BUOYANT
AIR, THE LINE WILL BE MORE ORTHOGONAL TO THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, A SUPERCELL OR TWO IS EVIDENT NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER.
THESE STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
..WENDT/SMITH.. 08/19/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39599484 39909559 40409581 40759542 40759415 40499294
39969276 39589322 39509373 39599484
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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