261
ACUS11 KWNS 192042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192042
KSZ000-192245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2044
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 192042Z - 192245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL APPEARS POSSIBLE BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP. A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF AGITATED CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS OVER THE LAST HOUR ALONG A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT. VERY WEAK
ASCENT ALOFT FROM A GLANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
COULD ALLOW AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL TO DEVELOP. VISIBLE SATELLITE
TRENDS AND SOME RECENT CAM GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST STORM INITIATION
IS PROBABLE, THOUGH NOT CERTAIN. THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS. GIVEN THE LACK OF GREATER
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, COVERAGE AND DURATION OF SEVERE INTENSITY WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED.
..WENDT/SMITH.. 08/19/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 38740159 39120170 39480144 39400072 39050024 38760017
38510049 38410106 38740159
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page