537
ACUS11 KWNS 200650
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200649
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-200815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2050
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 602...603...
VALID 200649Z - 200815Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 602, 603
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CONTINUES WITHIN THE WATCH AREAS. A LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION IN TIME
MAY BE NEEDED AS THE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 602 AT 3 AM APPROACHES.
DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN A WEST-EAST
ZONE WITHIN A REGION OF MODEST WARM ADVECTION AT 0645Z. EARLIER
REPORTS OF MEASURED SEVERE GUSTS AND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED
ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTED
MODERATE/STRONG ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND 35-45 KTS OF WESTERLY
EFFECTIVE SHEAR, SUPPORTING CONTINUED UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL. IN THE NEAR-TERM, THE INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE
OBSERVED ON REGIONAL RADARS AND RELATED CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING
SHOULD RESULT IN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOCUSING ON SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF WW 602, WHILE CONTINUING ACROSS WW 603. A LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION
IN TIME MAY ULTIMATELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WW
602 PRIOR TO THE SCHEDULED 3 AM CDT EXPIRATION.
..BUNTING/MOSIER.. 08/20/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...
LAT...LON 37449049 37308893 37248756 36938656 36588622 36178620
35908666 35828754 35818832 35908935 35929012 36039062
36279083 37009084 37449049
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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