681
ACUS11 KWNS 202034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202033
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-202230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2055
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHERN ALABAMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 202033Z - 202230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
DEVELOPING WITHIN PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AHEAD OF A WEAK
PERTURBATION IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
REACHED THE UPPER 90S F. RICH SURFACE MOISTURE/LARGE PWAT VALUES AND
STEEPER THAN TYPICAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. A GREATER
LOCALIZED WIND THREAT MAY EMERGE AS STORM OUTFLOWS CONGEAL AMID A
WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. COOLER AIR IS EVIDENT FARTHER EAST WHERE
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO MODIFY. STORM COVERAGE THERE IS LESS CERTAIN. A
WATCH IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THESE REGIONS DEPENDING ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.
..WENDT/SMITH.. 08/20/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 33139204 33659228 34059186 34538920 34508803 34068768
33448777 33148825 33139204
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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