763
ACUS11 KWNS 210026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210025
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-210300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2060
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHERN AL...MIDDLE TN...AND FAR
NORTHEAST MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 210025Z - 210300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED, TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVOLVING WITHIN A ZONE OF
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF MIDDLE/WESTERN TN
INTO FAR NORTHERN MS. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT PRECEDING A MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
OH VALLEY COULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITHIN
THIS ZONE. AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY, A WARM AND VERY MOIST PBL (UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 DEWPOINTS) ARE YIELDING A CORRIDOR OF STRONG
SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY. WHILE MODEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR AND LACK
OF A LLJ SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, SOME
STRENGTHENING OF MIDLEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE
MIDLEVEL WAVE (SAMPLED BY UPSTREAM VWP) COULD FAVOR A LOOSELY
ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS. IF THIS EVOLUTION OCCURS, DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. WHILE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
NOCTURNAL STATIC STABILITY AND THE MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY
TEMPER THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK, CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
..WEINMAN/GUYER.. 08/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
LAT...LON 34468820 34748839 35028832 35358815 35568778 35688713
35588634 35398583 35038562 34648557 34228586 34058643
34028727 34168781 34468820
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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