631
ACUS11 KWNS 210419
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210418
KSZ000-NEZ000-210515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2064
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 210418Z - 210515Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE WIND AND HAIL (SOME SIGNIFICANT) REMAINS A CONCERN
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH AN ONGOING MATURE SUPERCELL.
DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, WITH A HISTORY OF 2+ INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND 75+ MPH
MEASURED GUSTS. FURTHERMORE, MRMS MESH ALSO INDICATES HAIL OVER 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER MAY BE FALLING WITH THIS STORM. THIS SUPERCELL IS
LIKELY BENEFITING FROM LOCALLY HIGHER BUOYANCY (I.E. 2000 J/KG
MLCAPE) AND 50+ KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. NONETHELESS, MLCINH
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING, LIKELY RESULTING IN A
GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH TIME. UNTIL THIS OCCURS THOUGH, A LOCALIZED
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST.
..SQUITIERI/GUYER.. 08/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GLD...
LAT...LON 39690130 40030097 40000043 39820017 39340004 39060022
38780076 38700103 38750124 38970142 39690130
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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