281
ACUS11 KWNS 211835
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211835
NEZ000-KSZ000-212030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2068
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 211835Z - 212030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 70-80
MPH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR ONE OR MULTIPLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCHES.
DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED SO
FAR TODAY FROM THE NE SANDHILLS INTO EASTERN NE WITH ACTIVITY
POTENTIALLY BEING AIDED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
NORTHERN NE. THE 18Z OAX SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT STORMS ARE LIKELY
ROOTED ABOVE A RELATIVELY DRY LAYER EXTENDING FROM JUST ABOVE THE
GROUND TO 3-4 KM AGL WITH THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE OF 1500-2500+ J/KG.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN STORM EVOLUTION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MORE RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT NORTHEAST
OF MCCOOK, NE IS OCCURRING CLOSER TO A FRONT-OUTFLOW COMPOSITE
BOUNDARY, AHEAD OF WHICH TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THAT ACTIVITY
MAY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST INTO A HOTTER, MORE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL KS.
ELSEWHERE, ONGOING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN NE MAY ALSO INTENSIFY THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON AMIDST A
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING 40-50+ KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WHICH
IS CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STORM MODES. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF TWO
INCHES, AS WELL AS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70-80 MPH.
..MEAD/SMITH.. 08/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 38939874 39100007 39720089 40700152 41560151 42070117
42300068 42289963 42009741 40959604 40259573 39239634
38929692 38809754 38939874
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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