555
ACUS11 KWNS 212348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212347
KSZ000-COZ000-220145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2076
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND WEST-CENTRAL
KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 212347Z - 220145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG A
SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND IN A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE LOW IN EAST-CENTRAL CO. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EVOLVING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE, WHERE
AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS PROMOTING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
(INCLUDING SUPERCELLS). THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG A BUOYANCY GRADIENT, WHERE A DEEPLY MIXED PBL WILL
PROMOTE SEVERE WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LONGER-LIVED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
..WEINMAN/THOMPSON.. 08/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 38340362 38880375 39290372 39380350 39350311 39140246
38710195 38000179 37720207 37690273 38000328 38340362
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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