440
ACUS03 KWNS 220652
SWODY3
SPC AC 220651
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS....
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY.
..CENTRAL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THE STRONG RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN PRESENT FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 3 WEEKS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE HIGH PLAINS.
HOWEVER, THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED WITH A
FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ALONG THIS FRONTAL
ZONE WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST SHEAR IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA WHERE
A 40 KNOT JET STREAK WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
FORM ALONG THE FRONT IN THIS REGION DURING THE DAY, BUT THE BETTER
SIGNAL FOR STORMS IS DURING THE EVENING WHEN A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE GREATER DIURNAL STORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER, THE WEAKER SHEAR
ACROSS THIS REGION MAY RESULT IN ONLY MARGINALLY ORGANIZED STORMS.
THEREFORE, A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AND THUS THE
MARGINAL IS WARRANTED, BUT THE RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED STORM MODE
PRECLUDES HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..BENTLEY.. 08/22/2026
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