326
ACUS11 KWNS 221809
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221809
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-MOZ000-222015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 221809Z - 222015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEST-EAST ORIENTED
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND KANSAS. ALSO EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE
AN MCV LOCATED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND A SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS DEMARCATED BY A ZONE OF DEVELOPING CUMULUS. AS THIS MCV AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD
INTENSIFY AND/OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES AMID A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON, ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV (40-50 KTS SAMPLED BY THE
TULSA/WICHITA VWPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE MCV) WILL AID IN
THE ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION INTO ONE OR MORE LINEAR CLUSTERS.
SCATTERED DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND GUSTS (AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75-80 MPH) ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS CLUSTER
GIVEN THE ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW AND PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP
LOW-TO-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BELOW 600 MB (AS DEPICTED BY RECENT
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND SAMPLED BY THE 12 UTC LZK OBSERVED SOUNDING).
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS TO ADDRESS THIS SEVERE RISK.
..CHALMERS/SMITH.. 08/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 35779399 35159363 34349252 33509112 33518998 33788906
34528871 34998886 35608919 36039020 36829284 36679353
36239395 35779399
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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