039
ACUS11 KWNS 221915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221915
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-222145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2084
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WYOMING INTO THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST COLORADO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 221915Z - 222145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MID-AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WATCH IS CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO THE LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE THREAT.
DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
DEEPENING MOIST CONVECTION ALONG THE LARAMIE MOUNTAINS AND CO FRONT
RANGE WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED MCV
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL WY. BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S, YIELDING
MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS REMAINS CAPPED; HOWEVER,
CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE WY MCV
SHOULD ALLOW INITIAL TERRAIN-ANCHORED STORMS TO MOVE INTO LOWER
ELEVATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
CURRENT VWPS AND RAP-BASED FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERTICALLY
VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH AROUND 30 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WHICH
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST EPISODIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY
BECOME MORE LIKELY BY EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN MERGE
INTO CLUSTERS.
..MEAD/SMITH.. 08/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW...
LAT...LON 39800550 41380567 42410617 42980659 43970678 44480622
44330536 43750482 42360365 40850314 40080324 39670350
39320422 39330484 39800550
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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