625
ACUS11 KWNS 221919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221918
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-222115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2085
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 221918Z - 222115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TEXAS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS AS IT SPREADS SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WATCH
ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE 106-110 F RANGE WITHIN THE APEX OF A THERMAL RIDGE
ACROSS NORTHWEST TX. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 4-5 F WARMER
THAN EXPECTED BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE, WHICH IMPLIES
THAT BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING IS LIKELY DEEPER THAN DEPICTED BY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SIMILARLY, RESIDUAL MIXED-LAYER INHIBITION IS
LIKELY WEAKER THAN RECENT RAP MESOANALYSES WOULD SUGGEST. THE EARLY
STAGES OF BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ARE BECOMING EVIDENT IN
GOES IMAGERY, SUGGESTING THAT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
PROBABLE IN THE COMING HOURS EITHER ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK, ALONG A DIFFUSE/WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE, OR IN PROXIMITY TO A WEAK
THERMAL LOW ANALYZED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THESE TWO BOUNDARIES.
ALTHOUGH RECENT GUIDANCE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING LOW-LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS WELL, HRRR/RRFS TIME-LAGGED GUIDANCE SHOWS
A TRENDS TOWARDS WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY THE 20-22 UTC PERIOD. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN
WEAK AND PROMOTE MAINLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION, BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE DOWNBURSTS SHOULD INCREASE AS THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE THERMAL RIDGE WHERE LOW-LEVEL PROFILES WILL
BE MOST OPTIMAL FOR NEAR-SURFACE DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATIONS. EXPLICIT
WIND GUSTS ESTIMATES FROM HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS DEPICT SMALL SWATHS OF
60-75 MPH WINDS, WHICH APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF
POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITHIN A VERY HOT/DEEPLY MIXED
ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED, AND
WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE APPEARS SUFFICIENT
FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND THREAT.
..MOORE/SMITH.. 08/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33469894 33419928 33610233 33640275 33720299 33900312
34150316 34500308 34810289 35060253 35130166 35160062
35269914 35149890 34869876 33819857 33609867 33469894
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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