462
ACUS11 KWNS 222034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222033
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-MOZ000-222230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2089
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND FAR
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615...
VALID 222033Z - 222230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE EARLY SIGNS UP UPSCALE GROWTH ARE NOTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, HINTING THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS IS
LIKELY INCREASING DOWNSTREAM INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND FAR
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST 40-45 MINUTES, REFLECTIVITY AND VELOCITY
DATA FROM KLZK AND KNQA HAVE SHOWN THE EARLY STAGES OF SEMI-DISCRETE
CELLS MERGING AND GROWING UPSCALE INTO A MORE COHESIVE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER. COLD POOL AMALGAMATION APPEARS TO BE ONGOING WITH EMBEDDED
SWATHS OF MORE INTENSE WIND NOW EVIDENT IN KNQA VELOCITY IMAGERY.
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS DEVELOPING CLUSTER, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
STEEPENED TO 8-9 C/KM AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S.
ADDITIONALLY, THE KNQA VWP IS SAMPLING 0-6 KM BWD VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 30-35 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE EMERGING CLUSTER (POSSIBLY
INTO A MORE COHERENT LINEAR STRUCTURE) AS IT SPREADS SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN TN AND FAR NORTHWEST MS OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. BASED ON
RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS, THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT, AND OUTPUT
FROM RECENT CAM GUIDANCE (WHICH APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING ONGOING
TRENDS WELL) THE POTENTIAL FOR 60-80 MPH WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
AS THE CLUSTER/LINE APPROACHES THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
..MOORE.. 08/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...
LAT...LON 35058917 34658977 34509004 34439039 34569063 35429141
35589146 35699121 35939100 36139078 36229062 35578897
35318893 35058917
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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