175
ACUS11 KWNS 222202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222202
MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-230030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2091
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 222202Z - 230030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WHILE
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WHILE A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED, TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE IN WESTERN VA, POTENTIALLY AIDED BY INCREASING MIDLEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS PRECEDING A BROAD MIDLEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL VA AND NORTHERN NC. A
WARM, MOIST, AND UNCAPPED AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM SHOULD SUPPORT A
MODEST INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE LIMITING OVERALL BUOYANCY (AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE), AN
ELONGATED MIDLEVEL HODOGRAPH (40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR PER FCX VWP)
COULD PROMOTE A FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WHILE THE OVERALL RISK MAY REMAIN TOO
LOCALIZED/SPARSE FOR A WATCH, TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
..WEINMAN/THOMPSON.. 08/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...
LAT...LON 36568122 36908125 37628037 38057977 38737887 39377837
39447792 39237739 38807712 38207722 36967810 36137933
35987997 36008043 36298116 36568122
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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