855
FNUS21 KWNS 230657
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
..SYNOPSIS
A ROBUST MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH, AN EXPANSIVE
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ON THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
..NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
DIURNAL HEATING AND RELATED BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING BENEATH A
WELL-ESTABLISHED MIDLEVEL MOISTURE PLUME (SAMPLED BY 23/00Z OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS) WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE
REGION. AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH OVERSPREADS THIS INSTABILITY, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. FAST STORM MOTIONS AND THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
(CHARACTERIZED BY INVERTED-V PROFILES) WILL FAVOR A MIX OF WET/DRY
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN DRY FUELS ACROSS THE AREA, LIGHTNING-INDUCED
IGNITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND POSE A RISK OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL --
ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL MT. SEE THE
SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE SEVERE
RISK.
ADDITIONALLY, BREEZY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION ALONG/BEHIND AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. THESE BREEZY
WINDS COMBINED WITH 15-25 PERCENT RH WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE
RISK.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AIDED BY AN EVOLVING SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE OK
PANHANDLE, DRY/BREEZY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, RESULTING IN ELEVATED CONDITIONS (GIVEN
INCREASINGLY DRY/RECEPTIVE FUELS). FURTHERMORE, THE PASSING MIDLEVEL
IMPULSE WILL PROMOTE HIGH-BASED, EASTWARD-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED IGNITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, GIVEN LIMITED EXPECTED RAINFALL.
..WEINMAN.. 08/23/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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