165
ACUS11 KWNS 232149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232149
NDZ000-SDZ000-232315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 232149Z - 232315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVOLVING ALONG A LEE TROUGH IN FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ND -- POTENTIALLY BEING AIDED BY A PASSING MIDLEVEL
WAVE FARTHER NORTH (EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY). AN ELONGATED HODOGRAPH
WITH CLOCKWISE CURVATURE (AROUND 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR) AND
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP LOWER/MIDDLE 60S DEWPOINTS WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE LEE TROUGH WILL INITIALLY FAVOR
DISCRETE CELLS, THOUGH LOCALIZED UPSCALE GROWTH INTO SMALL CLUSTERS
IS POSSIBLE WITH TIME. A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
..WEINMAN/THOMPSON.. 08/23/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...
LAT...LON 46170398 47120400 47640394 47870360 47950260 47670210
46610204 46040230 45910282 45970382 46170398
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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