121
ACUS11 KWNS 242159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242159
SDZ000-242330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 242159Z - 242330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF
LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. IT IS UNCLEAR IF A WATCH IS
NEEDED, THOUGH TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS EVOLVING ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT IN CENTRAL SD, WITH ADDITIONAL AGITATED
BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS NEARBY. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE PBL IS YIELDING MODERATE SURFACE-BASED
BUOYANCY, WHICH COMBINED WITH AN ELONGATING/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH
(AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR), WILL SUPPORT SPLITTING SUPERCELLS
AND SMALL ORGANIZED CLUSTERS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW
MANY STORMS WILL DEVELOP, GIVEN SOMEWHAT MODEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND SOME LINGERING INHIBITION AT THE BASE OF THE EML.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
AND A WATCH IS AT LEAST BEING CONSIDERED.
..WEINMAN/THOMPSON.. 08/24/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...
LAT...LON 44310145 44740151 45680122 45820092 45900021 45849985
45629954 45319943 44929939 44279960 43879992 43760060
43900117 44310145
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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