288
FNUS21 KWNS 251633
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VALID 251700Z - 261200Z
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. YESTERDAY AFTERNOON,
DRY THUNDERSTORMS (ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION LARGELY BELOW 0.15")
PASSED OVER CENTRAL-NORTHERN NV, NORTHEASTERN ID, SOUTHEASTERN OR,
AND SOUTHERN ID WITH MANY NEW FIRE STARTS VISIBLE BY SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
OVERLAP SOME OF THESE NEW STARTS THIS AFTERNOON, FURTHER
EXACERBATING THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT AND PROVOKING ANY
LIGHTNING-INDUCED HOLDOVERS TO EMERGE.
THE ISODRYT THREAT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD TODAY, EXTENDING FROM THE
WALLOWA MOUNTAINS IN NORTHEAST OR INTO SOUTHWEST MT WHERE A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND FAST STORM MOTIONS WILL LIMIT GREATER
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. RECEPTIVE FUELS (80-95TH PERCENTILE ERCS)
WILL SUPPORT NEW IGNITIONS WITHIN THE HIGHLIGHTED REGION. MORE
RECOVERED FUELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ID, NORTHEASTERN NV, AND
NORTHWESTERN UT PRECLUDES A SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE ISODRYT,
THOUGH LIGHTNING IGNITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE POCKETS OF
DRIER FUELS EXIST.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS LA/VENTURA/SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,
PROMOTING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS FUELS GROW INCREASINGLY
MORE RECEPTIVE. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 08/25/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0101 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL WAVE EMBEDDED IN BROADER SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH TODAY. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION WILL AID IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS IN NORTHEAST OR INTO CENTRAL ID AND FAR
SOUTHWEST MT. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CA, NORTHWEST
NV AND SOUTHEASTERN OR. A WEAK OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BRING DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA.
...NORTHEASTERN OREGON, CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
MONTANA...
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM FAR
NORTHEASTERN OR MOUNTAINS, EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION AMID INCREASING
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINGS, PWAT VALUES OF
ONLY 0.5" TO 0.8" AND HIGH SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS (SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S TO 40S F) WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MOSTLY DRY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. FUELS REMAIN DRY
RECEPTIVE AS EVIDENCED BY NEW RECENT LIGHTNING IGNITIONS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN CA AND NORTHWESTERN NV, WITH ERC VALUES IN THE 90-95TH
PERCENTILE RANGE STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ID.
..NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
MODEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT, AN INCREASINGLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND
AN EFFICIENT DAYTIME MIXING ENVIRONMENT WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN CA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AND RH AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
EXIST WHERE WINDS BRIEFLY REACH 20 MPH. RECENT LIGHTNING AND
RESULTANT NEW WILDFIRES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN CA AND NORTHWESTERN NV
WILL BE EXPOSED TO THIS ADVERSE FIRE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT THIS
AFTERNOON.
..SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EVOLVE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS AMID AN INCREASINGLY RECEPTIVE FUELSCAPE. OFFSHORE WINDS OF
15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN FAVORED TERRAIN GAPS AND DOWNSLOPE REGIONS
OF LA/VENTURA/SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES AS RH FALLS TO AS LOW AS 15
PERCENT, PRIMARILY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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