605
ACUS11 KWNS 252053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252053
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-252300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2128
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 252053Z - 252300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. A
WATCH IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NE/KS INTO EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE FOOTHILLS IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEADILY INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO EASTERN COLORADO/SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING. RECENT ACARS
SOUNDINGS FROM DEN SHOW MLCIN REMAINS. MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG
IS NOTED WITHIN SPC MESOANALYSIS FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KANSAS. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WITH FURTHER HEATING AND FORCING FOR ASCENT
WITH AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE SHIFTING EASTWARD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
SPREAD INTO THE LOWER PLAINS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND EVENTUALLY INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH MODEST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS, SUPERCELL MODES WILL BE FAVORED
INITIALLY. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT,
GIVEN STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AFOREMENTIONED
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. A TRANSITION TO CLUSTERS AND UPSCALE
GROWTH THOUGH THE EVENING WITH SEVERE GUSTS BECOMING THE PRIMARY
THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING. A WATCH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING TO
COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
..THORNTON/SMITH.. 08/25/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40880465 41510439 42020391 42230340 42220289 42060228
41710169 41170115 40340124 39910145 39720219 39820303
40030369 40410456 40880465
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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