343
ACUS11 KWNS 252157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252157
OKZ000-TXZ000-252300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 252157Z - 252300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS SEVERE GUSTS, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN
PROGRESS FURTHER SOUTH INTO A DEEPER/DRY AIRMASS. TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE NEED OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...A MULTICELLULAR CLUSTER CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
SOUTHWARD, WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING MEASURED HAIL OVER 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER, WITH MRMS MESH INDICATING UP TO 2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL
POTENTIALLY FALLING. AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE FARTHER
SOUTH, THEY WILL ENCOUNTER AN EVEN DRIER/DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER,
WHICH MAY FOSTER ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO GENERATE A FEW SEVERE
GUSTS VIA DRY MICROBURSTS. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS WILL
PROGRESS GIVEN INCREASINGLY WEAKER DOWNSTREAM DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
OVERALL DRIER AIR. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR THE NEED OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.
..SQUITIERI/THOMPSON.. 08/25/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 33690050 34890052 35290038 35500018 35520011 35359976
34389921 33919898 33369923 33249949 33270011 33690050
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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