896
ACUS11 KWNS 252348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252348
WIZ000-MNZ000-260115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2133
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 626...
VALID 252348Z - 260115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 626
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS -- WITHIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 626.
DISCUSSION...A NNE/SSW-ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN WI REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR ONGOING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS, WITH TRANSIENT/EMBEDDED ROTATION. AROUND 30-40
KT OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (PER DLH VWP DATA)
ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT AND A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
WEAK-MODERATE PRE-CONVECTIVE BUOYANCY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. GIVEN THE CLUSTERED MODE
WITH SOME DEEPER/SEPARATED CORES, THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CONTINUE
TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SEVERE HAIL. WHILE UNLIKELY, THE
TRANSIENT EMBEDDED ROTATION AND ONGOING CELL INTERACTIONS COULD
STILL SUPPORT A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO RISK, AIDED BY SOME INCREASE IN A
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WITH TIME AND
EASTWARD EXTENT, THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE
AIR MASS IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI (EVIDENT IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY). THEREFORE, A DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS
UNLIKELY.
..WEINMAN.. 08/25/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...
LAT...LON 46099243 46539183 46619158 46569131 46329118 45669119
45249147 45169189 45219268 45379295 45709281 46099243
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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