495
ACUS11 KWNS 262051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262051
NMZ000-262315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2140
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEW MEXICO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 262051Z - 262315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 65-75 MPH IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THE
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT THE THREAT WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED
SPATIALLY TO WARRANT A WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS WITHIN A MOIST, MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT SOME DEGREE OF
CAPPING EXISTS ACROSS THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NM, LIKELY
LIMITING STORMS TO THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
NEAR TERM, WHERE ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE.
CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN
SPORADIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 65-75 MPH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
THREAT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED; HOWEVER, IF OBSERVATIONAL DATA
BEGIN TO SUGGEST OTHERWISE, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE CONSIDERED.
..MEAD/MOSIER.. 08/26/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34820517 35720524 36650512 36940494 36930436 36670345
35780310 34890310 34300324 33880334 33850406 34290501
34820517
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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