565
ACUS11 KWNS 272103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272102
COZ000-NMZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-272300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2154
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 272102Z - 272300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING AN ISOLATED RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND THE RATON MESO/SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS OF 2045 UTC. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 90 F WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, WHICH
IS SUPPORTING 500 TO LOCALLY 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. THIS AREA IS
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF STRONGER MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, WITH
ONLY 20-30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A MIX OF CLUSTERS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES, HOWEVER. STEEP LOW- AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH
DRY, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES (LCLS OF 2000-2500+ M) WILL
SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THIS
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, WATCH ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME
AS LINGERING INHIBITION (INDICATED BY RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS) AND
ONLY MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO TEMPER OVERALL SEVERE
RISK AND SPATIALLY CONFINE IT TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FOOTHILLS.
..CHALMERS/MOSIER.. 08/27/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...
LAT...LON 38730563 37080551 35800534 35580524 35400506 35300483
35270443 35410417 35640400 35960385 36760377 39640362
40320362 40790377 41120402 41280427 41440466 41350502
41060540 40600558 38730563
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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