346
FNUS21 KWNS 281556
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VALID 281700Z - 291200Z
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING DRAWN AREAS. THE EXTENT OF THE
EXISTING ELEVATED WIND/RH AREAS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE. THE MOST UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
THE AREA OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL
CA. WHILE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT (VIA BOTH DYNAMIC FORCING FROM
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND MECHANICAL FORCING FROM TERRAIN) EXISTS
FROM THE PLUME OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD, THE BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE MAGNITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT OF INSTABILITY.
WHILE AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MOISTURE PLUME ARE LIKELY TO SEE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER, AREAS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT EXPERIENCING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
LIMITED COVERAGE, FAST STORM MOTIONS, LOW-LEVEL DRYNESS, AND DRY
FUELS, ARE EXPECTED TO BALANCE THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT STREAMING
THROUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVELS.
..STEARNS.. 08/28/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1217 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
..NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON
BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL PROMOTE MODEST SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHEAST OREGON INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND AFTERNOON RH OF
10-20% WILL COMBINE WITH VERY DRY FUELS TO BRING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
..NORTHWEST MONTANA
A MODEST MID-LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE, ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE
EAST, WILL BRING DRY, DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO THE LEE OF THE TERRAIN IN
NORTHWEST MONTANA. WINDS OF 15-20 MPH (LOCALLY HIGHER IN
TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS) AND 10-20% RH WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
..SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL RANGES INTO SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AT MIDLEVELS AND SUBTLE LIFT FROM THE TERRAIN/TROUGH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
FAST ENOUGH AND LOW LEVELS DRY ENOUGH TO LIMIT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WHERE STORMS CAN DEVELOP. UNCERTAINTY IN STORM
COVERAGE REMAINS HIGH, BUT DRY FUELS WOULD SUPPORT LIGHTNING
IGNITIONS.
..SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TRANSVERSE RANGES
A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME WILL BRING 10-15 MPH (LOCALLY HIGHER)
WINDS WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND
DRY FUELS, FIRE WEATHER WILL BE ELEVATED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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