448
ACUS11 KWNS 281728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281728
MEZ000-282000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...MAINE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 281728Z - 282000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN MAINE
WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS
MAY POSE A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION...LATEST GOES IMAGERY AND ECHO TOP TRENDS SHOW TRANSIENT
DEEPENING OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS WITHIN A BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE
ACROSS NORTHERN ME. THIS RECENT UPTICK IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY
ATTRIBUTABLE TO TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
VIA DIURNAL WARMING, WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES ROUGHLY
AROUND 1000 J/KG. FURTHER HEATING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
SHOULD BOLSTER BUOYANCY SLIGHTLY BY PEAK HEATING (MOST LIKELY UP TO
AROUND 1500 J/KG). THIS SHOULD PROMOTE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE NOTED FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND SHOULD SIMILAR SEE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH PEAK HEATING AS THEY SPREAD EAST. DESPITE FAIRLY MODEST
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SOME MEASURE OF DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR
(ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 25-30 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT VWP
OBSERVATIONS) MAY PROMOTE ADEQUATE STORM ORGANIZATION FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (ESPECIALLY IF A LINEAR STORM
MODE CAN BE REALIZED THROUGH PEAK HEATING WHEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE MAXIMIZED). IN GENERAL, THIS SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
TOO TRANSIENT AND LOCALIZED TO WARRANT WATCH ISSUANCE.
..MOORE/MOSIER.. 08/28/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...
LAT...LON 44207088 47306868 47426837 47276799 47236792 46926772
45776770 45476782 45116801 44826850 43967017 43867059
43847081 43947089 44207088
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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