250
ACUS03 KWNS 281918
SWODY3
SPC AC 281916
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY A SEVERE WIND
AND HAIL THREAT, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO CANADA ON D3/SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US SHIFTS
GRADUALLY EASTWARD. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, PRECEDED BY A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
..PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EVENING OF D3/SUNDAY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA NEAR
THE WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME, WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND AND TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES GIVEN STRONG
SHEAR PROFILES. A MIX OF MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS MAY REDEVELOP BY
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS, WITH ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS POTENTIALLY
GROWING UPSCALE INTO AN MCS. SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH MULTICELL/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES, WITH PERHAPS SOME RISK
OF A WIND SWATH SHOULD AN MCS MATERIALIZE.
..PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MORE SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING
LEADS TO A MORE CONDITIONAL THREAT. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
IN THE EVENING MAY AID IN OVERCOMING MLCIN AND DEVELOPMENT OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION. SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. SHOULD STORMS
BE ABLE TO INITIATE, THEY WILL POSE A WIND AND HAIL RISK INTO THE
LATE EVENING.
..THORNTON.. 08/28/2026
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