810
ACUS11 KWNS 291920
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291920
UTZ000-NVZ000-292145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2167
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO WEST
CENTRAL/NORTHWESTERN UTAH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 291920Z - 292145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING
A FEW EVOLVING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSING A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL
AND WIND, THROUGH 3-5 PM MDT. WHILE IT IS NOT YET CERTAIN THAT A
SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED, TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RAPID REFRESH OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS IN THE PROCESS OF PROPAGATING
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE VICINITY THROUGH SOUTHERN
WYOMING. HOWEVER, WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF 40+ KT AS LOW AS THE
600-500 MB LAYER, MAINTAINING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC
WARM ADVECTION, THE INITIATION OF SCATTERED DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS
APPEARS UNDERWAY SOUTHWEST OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE VICINITY INTO
EASTERN NEVADA, WHERE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER REMAINS MOIST AND
INSOLATION IS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING INSTABILITY. AS LINGERING
INHIBITION WEAKENS FURTHER, AND CAPE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN EXCESS
OF 1000 J/KG, THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONDUCIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSING A
RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE CONTENT, THESE STORMS MAY ALSO GRADUALLY POSE INCREASING
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE SURFACE GUSTS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON, AIDED BY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION LOADING.
..KERR/MOSIER.. 08/29/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SLC...LKN...
LAT...LON 39961558 41041363 41241224 40441175 38961221 39111377
38821543 39961558
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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