542
ACUS02 KWNS 300555
SWODY2
SPC AC 300553
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...
..SUMMARY
SPARSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY WIND AND HAIL, ARE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW (MONDAY) FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS TOMORROW (SUNDAY), WITH AT LEAST ONE LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND SEVERAL OTHER SMALLER-SCALE IMPULSES POISED TO PIVOT
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE, OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE PROCESS. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THESE IMPULSES ATOP
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ALL ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MORE SPARSE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST,
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FOSTER ENOUGH BUOYANCY AND
SHEAR TO SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT.
..CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST
A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE UPPER MS VALLEY
WHILE A SMALLER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE IMPINGES ON THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AFTER DARK. AS SUCH, UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE LIMITED ALONG AN
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NE TO FAR
WESTERN WI DURING THE DAY. ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, SURFACE DEWPOINTS
SHOULD EXCEED 70 F AS 7.5-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ADVECTED
OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST, YIELDING 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. FURTHERMORE,
MODEST WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO 35-40 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, WHICH IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR MULTICELLS AND
SUPERCELLS SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP AND MATURE. SEVERE WIND AND HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH SUCH A STORM. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETER SPACE, THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS QUITE CONDITIONAL GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT, AS
SUGGESTED BY CAMS, WHICH SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE.
GIVEN DOUBTS ON MORE THAN SPARSE STORM COVERAGE, ONLY MARGINAL RISK
PROBABILITIES REMAIN IN PLACE.
..SQUITIERI.. 08/30/2026
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