167
ACUS11 KWNS 301031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301030
NDZ000-301300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 301030Z - 301300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS
MAY CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR WEATHER WATCH
ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION RADAR IMAGERY FROM MINOT,
NORTH DAKOTA SHOWS A SUPERCELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WILLISTON. THIS
STORM IS MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD AN INSTABILITY MAXIMUM IN
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WHERE THE RAP HAS MLCAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG. IN ADDITION, THE MINOT WSR-88D VWP HAS BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH UP TO 50 KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE 6 TO 8 KM LAYER AGL. THIS IS RESULTING IN ABOUT 45 KNOTS
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE SUPERCELL IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA COULD
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE PATH OF THE STORM.
..BROYLES/HART.. 08/30/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BIS...
LAT...LON 47820338 48120331 48230285 48220125 48210083 48110056
47900055 47720063 47550098 47580201 47660300 47820338
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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