829
ACUS11 KWNS 301841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301841
COZ000-UTZ000-AZZ000-302045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2175
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 301841Z - 302045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS UTAH AND INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH SOME ATTENDANT RISK FOR
SPORADIC LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS. WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED
GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT.
DISCUSSION...GOES IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 30-60 MINUTES HAS SHOWN
DEEPENING CUMULUS ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN UT AS WELL AS COOLING
CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN CO. THIS TREND IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO STEADY DIURNAL
HEATING AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S (WITH POCKETS OF LOW 80S)
TO THE SOUTH OF A REMNANT COLD POOL DRAPED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL UT.
FURTHER HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND GLANCING ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER WAVE TO THE NORTH SHOULD
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL UT AND
INTO WESTERN CO.
ESTIMATING BUOYANCY FROM THE 18Z LKN/FGZ SOUNDINGS, REGIONAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS, AND RAP MESOANALYSES, MLCAPE VALUE ARE LIKELY
INCREASING INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS UT, AND LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE LIKELY APPROACHING 8 TO 9 C/KM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
RESIDUAL COLD POOL. ADDITIONALLY, THE KICX VWP CONTINUES TO SAMPLE
AROUND 35 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BWD. THIS CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS (ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UT).
ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY MAGNITUDES GENERALLY DECREASE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT
INTO CO (PER MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES), BETTER ASCENT AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD COMPENSATE AND SUPPORT A SIMILAR
SEVERE THREAT.
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH LATE EVENING AS THE
PRIMARY UPPER WAVE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD ACT TO
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION BEYOND THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS, AND CLUSTERED STORM MODES MAY ALSO ACT AS A
MODULATING FACTOR TO OVERALL STORM LONGEVITY AND SEVERITY. AS SUCH,
THE OVERALL SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
ISOLATED TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE.
..MOORE/MOSIER.. 08/30/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF...
LAT...LON 37011275 37411334 38131374 38591373 39091359 39461327
39681289 39921217 40160700 40080666 39750649 39290656
39040681 38800719 38490826 38130958 37631051 37251109
36941160 36851216 37011275
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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