756
ACUS03 KWNS 301935
SWODY3
SPC AC 301934
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO NEW JERSEY...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF
NEW YORK, PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY
ALSO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO NEBRASKA.
..SYNOPSIS
A ZONE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF NY, PA AND NJ ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
ALSO BE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH, WHERE VARIOUS AREAS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE WILL YIELD
30-40 KT MIDLEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES, AND MINOR COOLING ALOFT MAY OCCUR
AS EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST.
..NORTHEAST
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM NY INTO PA,
BOTH DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. EARLY DAY STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO NY, WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST. DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR SOUTH OF THIS ZONE AND
POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS, WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK, BUT SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE
NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES OR AN AFTERNOON SURFACE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT
REDEVELOPMENT. ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST
CELLULAR STORM MODE IS POSSIBLE, WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
GUSTS MOST LIKELY. OVERNIGHT, ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS FORECAST AS
HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR UPSTREAM, AND WESTERLY WINDS AT 850 MB MAINTAIN
THETA-E. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST STORMS MOVING OUT OF ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT, WITH WIND POTENTIAL.
..NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND VICINITY
MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THIS AREA, AS
DAYTIME HEATING YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY. SOME OF THIS AREA MAY BE
AFFECTED BY EARLY DAY RAIN/STORMS, WITH BOUNDARY REINFORCEMENT.
STRONG HEATING AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD
SUPPORT NEW DEVELOPMENT, PERHAPS A SUPERCELL OR TWO PRODUCING HAIL.
STORM COVERAGE MAY THEN INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD.
..JEWELL.. 08/30/2026
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