657
ACUS11 KWNS 310041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310040
SDZ000-NDZ000-310145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN ND...NORTHERN INTO NORTHEASTERN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636...637...
VALID 310040Z - 310145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636, 637
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST TO THE
SOUTH OF RESIDUAL STRATUS SHIELD AND A RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY
LAYER AND FOCUS ALONG THE DAKOTAS BORDER INTO NORTHEAST SD DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION...A SEVERAL HOUR LOOP OF VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SLOW-TO-ERODE STRATUS SHIELD OVER SOUTHERN ND WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S DEG F. SOUTH OF THE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/BAROCLINIC ZONE, SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST SD. THE 00 UTC
ABERDEEN, SD RAOB DEPICTED THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
NORTHEAST SD (3100 J/KG MLCAPE) AND IT SAMPLED 30-KT AND 70-KT 500
MB AND 250 MB SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THE ORGANIZED
SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST ALONG THE DAKOTAS BORDER, EXPECTING THE
GREATEST SEVERE-WIND RISK TO FOCUS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS (THROUGH 03-04 UTC).
..SMITH.. 08/31/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 46120069 45970007 46109936 46409890 46449807 46279766
45889748 45589753 45339776 45249864 45260040 45360073
45570082 46120069
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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