708
ACUS11 KWNS 310305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310305
KSZ000-COZ000-310500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 310305Z - 310500Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER HAS
RECENTLY INTENSIFIED. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT A
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...EVENING WV IMAGERY SHOWED A WEAK MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
MAX MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. ASCENT FROM THIS
FEATURE HAS HELP SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS, WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY
INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN CO THIS EVENING. A STRONGER CLUSTER HAS
EMERGED NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER RECENTLY AND COULD INTENSIFY FURTHER.
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT, THOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT IS RELATIVELY MODEST AND NOCTURNAL INHIBITION IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE WITH TIME.
THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE. SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (~8 C/KM) AND
T/TD SPREAD OVER 20 DEGREES F WILL FAVOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS
POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF SEVERE GUSTS. RECENT HREF/CAM SOLUTIONS DO
SHOW THIS CLUSTER AND SOME STRONGER GUSTS CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN KS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT SOME SEVERE GUSTS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE CLUSTER WEAKENS AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED, A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED, THOUGH
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
..LYONS/SMITH.. 08/31/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...
LAT...LON 38100206 39560140 39890102 39910047 39939999 39809914
39519870 38659970 38120039 37590134 37610191 37560194
38100206
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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