062
ACUS03 KWNS 310717
SWODY3
SPC AC 310716
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WIND AND HAIL ARE THE
MAIN THREATS, THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR.
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AS
AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL TRAVERSE THE GREAT
LAKES AND OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE WHILE IT PASSES OVER
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER, PROMOTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS.
..NORTHWEST PA TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (PERHAPS STRONG) WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS PA
AND POINTS SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD (12Z WEDNESDAY).
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST MODEST INSOLATION, RESULTING IN BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION. SURFACE HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER (E.G. LOW
70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS) WILL RESULT IN 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE GIVEN
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 C/KM. THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVERSPREADING EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE
DELMARVA WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND 35-45
KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. FURTHERMORE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
DEPICT APPRECIABLY LARGE AND CURVED HODOGRAPHS, WITH OVER 200 M2/S2
0-3 KM SRH. SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
STORM MODE, WITH SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS, THOUGH A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
..PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL TRAVERSE THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE PRECEDED BY 7.5-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD 70 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND YIELD 2000+
J/KG MLCAPE AMID 35+ KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. MULTICELLS AND
SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR, ACCOMPANIED BY A SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT.
..SQUITIERI.. 08/31/2026
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