403
ACUS11 KWNS 011739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011738
LAZ000-TXZ000-012015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 011738Z - 012015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SOME TORNADO THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, BUT THE
OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED AND PRECLUDE THE NEED
FOR A WATCH.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD
HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY DEEPENING ACROSS SOUTHERN LA WITHIN A PLUME OF
HIGHER LOW-LEVEL THETA-E, WHERE UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS ARE BEING
ADVECTED NORTHWESTWARD AND HEATING IS MAXIMIZED ON THE FRINGE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS SHIELD. SURFACE ANALYSES/OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THIS PLUME EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN TX TO THE NORTH OF
EDOUARD'S CIRCULATION CENTER, AND LIKELY SUPPORTS MLCAPE VALUES ON
THE ORDER OF 1000 TO PERHAPS 1500 J/KG.
VWP OBSERVATIONS FROM KLCH DEPICT 30-35 KNOT VEERING FLOW THROUGH
THE LOWEST KILOMETER THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZING LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW QUICKLY DIMINISHES
WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT BASED ON THE KPOE VWP WHERE FLOW WITHIN THE
LOWEST KILOMETER IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS. CONSEQUENTLY, IT APPEARS THAT
THERE IS LIMITED OVERLAP BETWEEN THE BEST THERMODYNAMIC AND
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENTS, WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AND THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT.
NONETHELESS, A SMALL CORRIDOR MAY EXIST IN BETWEEN THESE TWO REGIMES
WHERE BRIEF CIRCULATIONS MAY MATERIALIZE. ANY TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH PEAK HEATING BEFORE THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF EDOUARD'S WIND FIELD AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE. GIVEN THIS LIMITED POTENTIAL, WATCH
ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
..MOORE/GLEASON.. 09/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 29629275 30009337 30399430 30619446 30919437 31099419
31379360 31419324 31329258 31219203 30979165 30609150
30379149 30049151 29739151 29599185 29599211 29529236
29629275
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
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