758
ACUS11 KWNS 011913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011913
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-012115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2185
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 011913Z - 012115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. GIVEN A
FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT, STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AND
POSE A SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WATCH ISSUANCE
IS LIKELY BY 21Z (5 PM EDT) AS THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO MATURE.
DISCUSSION...LATEST GOES DAY CLOUD PHASE IMAGERY DEPICTS TOWERING
CUMULUS ON THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN FRINGE OF A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE (ROUGHLY OUTLINED BY THE 90 F ISOTHERM) WHERE MODEST WARM
ADVECTION IS PROMOTING ASCENT. SOME LINGERING INHIBITION IS NOTED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY, BUT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMUM APPROACHES. LATEST
GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY 20-21 UTC
WITHIN THIS REGIME AND POTENTIALLY ALONG A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN NY INTO NORTHERN PA.
REGIONAL VWPS CONTINUE TO SAMPLE MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 35
KNOTS, WHICH IS SUPPORTING SIMILAR EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES GIVEN
SOMEWHAT WEAK NEAR-SURFACE WINDS. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS AND
RECENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, HODOGRAPH ELONGATION APPEARS SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS. WHILE DISCRETE MODES PERSIST, LARGE HAIL (POTENTIALLY UP
TO 1.75 INCHES) WILL BE POSSIBLE. A BRIEF TORNADO MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE - PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN NJ/FAR SOUTHERN NY NEAR A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WHERE LOW-LEVEL VEERING MAY BE ADEQUATE FOR A
LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT.
WITH TIME, CLUSTERING SHOULD PROMOTE SOME DEGREE OF UPSCALE GROWTH
WITH AN INCREASING SEVERE WIND THREAT, ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT INTO SOUTHERN NJ AND DE WHERE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR CLUSTERED/LINEAR STORM MODES. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT, WATCH ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED AS CONVECTION BEGINS TO INTENSIFY.
..MOORE/GLEASON.. 09/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 39197630 39647672 40027708 40447727 40807724 41137694
41227667 41247623 41347579 41417522 41627430 41557382
41367342 41127332 40847347 40637376 40437394 39747407
39337434 39247450 38977470 38857496 38847534 38987576
39197630
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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