448
ACUS11 KWNS 012201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012200
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-012330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2187
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 012200Z - 012330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
IN WESTERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. STORM COVERAGE IS NOT CERTAIN, BUT
A WATCH IS POSSIBLE SHOULD CONVECTIVE TRENDS WARRANT.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
FRONT IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THIS CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY BEEN
SLOW TO INTENSITY PER KCLE RADAR IMAGERY. THE 12Z PBZ SOUNDING
SHOWED RATHER MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, THOUGH MORE RECENT
TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM CMH SHOW SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES. MLCAPE
OF AROUND 3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL STORM COVERAGE WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION GIVEN THE LACK OF
FOCUSED SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND WEAKER SURFACE CONVERGENCE THAN FARTHER
EAST. A WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR THIS ACTIVITY AS IT
COULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.
..WENDT/MOSIER.. 09/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 39827762 39777781 40037883 40707983 41508057 41928034
42117954 42017864 41367820 40137750 39827762
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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