388
ACUS11 KWNS 012220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012219
NEZ000-KSZ000-020015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0519 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KS INTO CENTRAL NE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 012219Z - 020015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IF A STORM CAN
DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED, STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL COULD
OCCUR. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN STORM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE, A WATCH IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TOWERING CUMULUS ARE EVIDENT IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A MODEST SURFACE
TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE TO THE SOUTH OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 639. VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKENS WITH SOUTHWEST EXTENT
FROM CENTRAL NE INTO NORTHWEST KS. HOWEVER, WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVERLAPS A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
REMAIN FOCUSED TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION, BUT MODEST LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY SUPPORT A
STORM OR TWO THROUGH EVENING. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME
SUSTAINED EASTWARD OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND INTO DEEPER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE, DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP WITH MULTIPLE FAILED ATTEMPTS AT
INITIATION NOTED IN SATELLITE LOOPS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE, WATCH ISSUANCE AND/OR SOUTHWEST EXTENSION OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 639 IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
..LEITMAN/MOSIER.. 09/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 39680142 40760132 41690055 41780006 41649943 41159920
40539970 39450052 39350111 39410136 39680142
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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