935
ACUS03 KWNS 020729
SWODY3
SPC AC 020728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2026
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTS, ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY.
MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS (WITH WIND AND HAIL) MAY OCCUR OVER
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST.
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., WITH
UPPER TROUGHS MEANDERING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND THE NORTHEAST. A
BROAD WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED FROM PARTS OF THE MIDWEST
TO THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE, OVERSPREAD BY DEEP-LAYER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. MULTIPLE EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME, PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS IN THE
PROCESS.
..SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WV TO THE NC SHORELINE ON FRIDAY. BY AFTERNOON,
BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE,
LEFT BEHIND BY STORMS IN PRECEDING DAYS, WILL PROMOTE RENEWED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, 70+
F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 90 F WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. GIVEN STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, 30+ KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK (SPEED) SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS.
..PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE WARM FRONT (I.E. 70S F DEWPOINTS),
BENEATH 7-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WILL SUPPORT 3000+ J/KG
MLCAPE AND MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. WHILE UPPER SUPPORT WILL
BE QUITE SUBTLE AT BEST, STRONG HEATING AND MINIMAL CAPPING MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. ONLY
MARGINAL RISK PROBABILITIES WERE INTRODUCED GIVEN THE EXPECTED
SPARSE AND BRIEF NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER, ANY STORMS
THAT MATURE AND BECOME SUSTAINED WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
WIND OR HAIL.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/02/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page