520
ACUS48 KWNS 020846
SWOD48
SPC AC 020844
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2026
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
..DISCUSSION
UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH MEANDERING OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH (CURRENTLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST) SLOWLY DRIFTS OUT TO SEA. AS THIS OCCURS,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE U.S.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE IN AND AROUND THE CAROLINAS ON DAY 4/SATURDAY. A DIFFUSE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH WHILE BEING
REINFORCED FROM STORMS ON PREVIOUS DAYS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
HEATING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, AMID A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT, WILL
PROMOTE DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL, HENCE THE INTRODUCTION OF 15
PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
THERE IS ALSO SOME HINT AT AN MCS PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN ND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MN ALONG A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY AS WELL. WHILE ML/AI CALIBRATED
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS BEGINNING TO ELEVATE SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN
THIS AREA, UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FEATURE IS QUITE WEAK AT BEST,
LIMITING CONFIDENCE FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES
THIS OUTLOOK.
LASTLY, THE EJECTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK (I.E. NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY) WILL SUPPORT SURFACE
LEE TROUGHING AND THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
BENEATH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK MAY MATERIALIZE FROM THIS
SCENARIO, BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF KEY FEATURES ARE
TOO NEBULOUS FOR THE CONFIDENT INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES
THIS OUTLOOK.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/02/2026
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