300
ACUS11 KWNS 021038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021037
MIZ000-WIZ000-021230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL WI INTO PARTS OF LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 021037Z - 021230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH DAWN.
DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED MCS IS MOVING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WI EARLY
THIS MORNING. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME TENDENCY FOR WARMING CLOUD
TOPS WITH THIS MCS, A 51 KT GUST WAS RECENTLY NOTED FROM APPLETON,
WI (KATW), AND LOW-LEVEL VELOCITIES REMAIN VIGOROUS FROM THE KGRB
RADAR. IF THIS MCS CAN PERSIST AS IT CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN, IT WILL
BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER SOMEWHAT RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONGER
BUOYANCY OVER LOWER MI, WHICH MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WITH THIS MCS THROUGH DAWN.
FARTHER EAST, DISCRETE CELLS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF DETROIT
HAVE OCCASIONALLY SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION, WITHIN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR
OF 30-40 KT). THE LONGEVITY OF THESE CELLS MAY TEND TO BE LIMITED,
THOUGH LOCALIZED WIND-DAMAGE AND HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AS
LONG AS THEY PERSIST. LATER THIS MORNING, THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN LOWER MI MAY ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION OF THE
UPSTREAM MCS, OR ELSE REDEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE
ATTENDANT MCV.
..DEAN/HART.. 09/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX...
LAT...LON 44738761 44718500 44588301 43058234 42668230 42678285
43118462 43578631 43888823 44738761
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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