251
ACUS01 KWNS 021225
SWODY1
SPC AC 021223
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2026
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST STATES...AND ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY AND TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT, THOUGH SOME LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR. SCATTERED SEVERE GUSTS AND MORE SPORADIC
OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY INTO NIGHT.
..NORTHEAST STATES
A COMPLEX BUT POTENTIALLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY IS IN STORE FOR
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST US TODAY. A FAST-MOVING MCS AND ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MI AND SOUTHWEST ON
THIS MORNING BEFORE EMERGING INTO WESTERN NY/PA THIS AFTERNOON. A
CONSENSUS OF OVERNIGHT CAM SOLUTIONS INDICATE THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THIS CORRIDOR. THIS ALONG WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WELL INTO THE 80S AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. A
NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIE FROM CENTRAL NY INTO
EAST-CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
LOCALLY ENHANCED TO POSE SOME RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES.
THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT TODAY IS
THE PRESENCE OF CONSIDERABLE MORNING CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWEST PA AND WESTERN NY. THESE STORMS ARE WELL-AHEAD OF THE
MAIN FORCING FEATURE, AND DECREASE CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE PRIMARY RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
EARLY STORMS MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL RISK THROUGH THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY AFTER A FEW HOURS OF HEATING.
..MT
SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MT THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN THE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.
..CO/WY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN/WESTERN CO AND SOUTHERN WY. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN WY/WESTERN NE WHERE
INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED WITH 40-50 T-TD
SPREADS. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..HART/DEAN.. 09/02/2026
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