305
ACUS11 KWNS 021251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021251
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-021415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST OH INTO NORTHWEST PA AND WESTERN NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 021251Z - 021415Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING.
DISCUSSION...ROBUST ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION IS ONGOING AS OF 1230 UTC.
MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM KDTX, KPIT, AND KBUF DEPICT A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG MUCAPE
(GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG) AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE 35-50 KT RANGE.
MULTIPLE BOWING SEGMENTS AND A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED
THUS FAR, WITH SEVERAL RECENT REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE.
LONGEVITY OF ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AS A LOW-LEVEL
WARM-ADVECTION REGIME GRADUALLY WEAKENS WITH TIME, AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS DELAYS ROBUST DIURNAL HEATING. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT REGARDING MAINTENANCE OF ONGOING STORMS THROUGH
THE MORNING. HOWEVER, IF MODEST HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR
DOWNSTREAM AND ALLOW ONGOING CONVECTION TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED,
THEN SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND, ISOLATED HAIL, AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO COULD ACCOMPANY ANY PERSISTENT BOWING SEGMENTS OR
SUPERCELLS. WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF TRENDS SUPPORT MAINTENANCE
OF ONGOING ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING.
..DEAN/HART.. 09/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 42238118 42697927 43107843 43657800 43707708 43667665
43457635 42257700 41447743 40807818 40777901 40928002
41048049 41328101 41968129 42238118
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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