242
ACUS11 KWNS 021851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021850
NYZ000-022045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN NEW YORK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 021850Z - 022045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED BY 21Z.
DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH
MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY, COMBINED
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELLS, BUT
CLUSTERING INTO A MORE MIXED-MODE MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT, ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY BOWING STRUCTURES DEVELOP AMID
CLUSTERING STORMS.
A MORE CONDITIONAL HAIL/TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP IF MORE DISCRETE
STORM MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED. THE EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS ONTARIO DOES LEAD TO MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAINTENANCE OF
SUPERCELL MODE. THE STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE LINEAR
STRUCTURES BEFORE ENTERING WESTERN NEW YORK. HOWEVER, IF A MORE
DISCRETE MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED AFTER 23Z, WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, A GREATER TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST.
THEREFORE, A TORNADO WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED, ESPECIALLY IF
DISCRETE SUPERCELL MODE APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR INCREASES.
..BENTLEY/GLEASON.. 09/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43367917 43547637 42637619 42047623 42077932 42497955
43367917
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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