606
ACUS11 KWNS 021909
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021909
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-COZ000-UTZ000-022115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN UTAH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 021909Z - 022115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THERMODYNAMIC LIMITATIONS SHOULD
GENERALLY MODULATE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY AND LONGEVITY.
DISCUSSION...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
NOTED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS EASTERN UT, NORTHWEST CO AND
EAST/SOUTHEAST WY AS DIURNAL HEATING ERODES WEAK INHIBITION. FURTHER
HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THOUGH MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
GENERALLY LIMIT MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 500 J/KG THROUGH PEAK
HEATING - AS SAMPLED BY THE RECENT 18Z GJT SOUNDING.
DESPITE THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, THE GJT SOUNDING AND
KGJX VWP BOTH SAMPLED 40-50 KNOT FLOW BETWEEN 3-5 KM ASSOCIATED WITH
A JET STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD FETCH OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. BASED ON THE OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THIS FLOW IS
WELL WITHIN THE CAPE-BEARING LAYER AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON WHEN DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. CONSEQUENTLY, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS AT
THE SURFACE SHOULD INCREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS AND
CONVECTION INTENSIFIES TO SOME DEGREE. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
IN THE UPPER 80S, BUT VERY ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
REGION-WIDE.
IN GENERAL, THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT (ESPECIALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 6 KM) SHOULD MODULATE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM
INTENSITY, AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBSTANTIAL CLUSTERING/UPSCALE GROWTH. THESE CONCERNS WILL LIMIT THE
NEED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.
..MOORE/GLEASON.. 09/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...
LAT...LON 41390366 40750584 40260691 39720791 39270864 38570928
38300981 38201028 38251086 38381105 38981110 39711088
40151069 40731023 41640924 42310819 42920671 43260577
43510421 43510352 43230318 42810304 42320307 41720333
41390366
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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