797
ACUS11 KWNS 021922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021921
MIZ000-022045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2203
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...THE THUMB OF LOWER MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 021921Z - 022045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SOME DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY EXIST THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A FAST MOVING STORM DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IN
CENTRAL MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS RECENTLY EXHIBITED SOME
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AMID 45 TO 50 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. AT
THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THIS STORM MIGHT BE THE THE ONLY STRONG/SEVERE
STORM ALONG THIS ZONE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, SOME
GUIDANCE, SUCH AS THE RRFS, SHOWS CONTINUED BACK-BUILDING IN THE
WAKE OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY. MORE SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE, WITHIN
THIS ENVIRONMENTALLY FAVORABLE REGION, WOULD RESULT IN A GREATER
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER, BASED ON CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
TRENDS, CURRENTLY EXPECT THE MORE ISOLATED SCENARIO IS MOST
PROBABLE.
..BENTLEY/GLEASON.. 09/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...
LAT...LON 43958388 44078316 44088271 43538247 43458261 43418347
43398404 43498428 43958388
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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