383
ACUS11 KWNS 021959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021958
PAZ000-OHZ000-022130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2204
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 021958Z - 022130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DISCUSSION...TOWERING CUMULUS CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND FAR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN A REGION OF 2500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 40 TO 45 KNOTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR (PER SPC HRRR-BASED MESOANALYSIS). THE PITTSBURGH
18Z RAOB SHOWED AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH 3100
J/KG MLCAPE AND 38 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THEREFORE, ANY STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH A DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL
THREAT. HOWEVER, GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING ACROSS THE REGION,
STORM COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS AND LATEST
HRRR/RRFS TIME-LAGGED GUIDANCE SUGGEST SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE,
WHICH WOULD INCREASE WATCH LIKELIHOOD. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF FORCING
DOES CAST SOME DOUBT ON OVERALL STORM COVERAGE. THEREFORE, 60% WATCH
PROBABILITIES SEEM APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME, BUT IF GREATER STORM
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY, A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED.
..BENTLEY/GLEASON.. 09/02/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 41108181 41848073 41907941 41977763 41367739 40787783
40697914 40668002 40858175 41108181
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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